Resulting: Why We Mistake Luck for Skill in Bitcoin and Investing

The Psychological Trap: Why We Judge Decisions by Outcomes 

Humans hate uncertainty. When something goes wrong, we want a simple explanation—one that makes sense and gives us a clear takeaway. Instead of analyzing our decision-making process, we judge whether something was a “good” or “bad” decision based entirely on the result. 

This is called resulting—a mental shortcut that tricks us into thinking that bad luck means we made a bad choice, and good luck means we made a smart one. 

Imagine a poker player going all-in with pocket Aces—the strongest possible hand. 

• If they win the hand, they think, "I played well!" 
• If they lose the hand, they think, "I made a mistake." 

But in reality, the decision was correct either way—pocket Aces statistically win 80% of the time. The outcome doesn’t determine whether the decision was right or wrong. 

I used to coach middle school soccer. One time, our team was awarded a penalty kick—the result of which would most likely determine who would win the game. To take the kick, I chose the player on our team with the most goals scored that season. He missed and we lost the game. 

I later discovered his cleats were loose and that’s why he pulled the ball wide of the goal. I didn’t make a “bad decision.” If I had to make that call again, I’d pick that player every time based on who on our team was most likely to score the goal. We simply had “bad luck” on that day. 

We make this mistake in all areas of life, but it’s particularly dangerous in investing and finance—where luck, timing, and long-term trends play a massive role. 

How the Brain Works: The Psychology of Resulting 

The human brain is wired to seek certainty and avoid ambiguity. When faced with an uncertain situation, we naturally look for clear patterns and conclusions—even if they don’t exist. 

Three Cognitive Biases That Fuel Resulting: 

• Hindsight Bias – Once we know the outcome, we assume we should have seen it coming. 
• The Illusion of Control – We believe we have more control over events than we actually do. 
• Narrative Fallacy – We create stories that fit the outcome, even if the decision-making process was sound. 

Example: 

• If Bitcoin goes up: "I knew it! The market is rational!" 
• If Bitcoin goes down: "That was obvious. I should’ve sold." 

But the same decision-making process could have led to either result. 

How Resulting Affects Investing & Finance 

People judge financial decisions based on short-term results, not whether they were well-reasoned. 

Common Mistakes Caused by Resulting: 

• Panic Selling in a Bear Market – Selling because “it was a bad investment” instead of analyzing fundamentals. 
• Chasing Pumps – Buying into hype because “it worked for others.” 
• Avoiding Good Investments – If something failed once, people assume it will fail again. 

How Traditional Finance Exploits Resulting: 

• Fund Managers Take Credit for Bull Markets → "Look how much money we made you!" (ignoring luck). 
• Financial Advisors Blame “Unexpected Events” for Losses → "No one could have seen this coming!" (ignoring poor risk management). 
• The Government Moves the Goalposts → "We avoided a recession because of our policies!" (cherry-picking results). 

Bitcoin Case Study: How Resulting Keeps People from Opting In 

Bitcoin is one of the best examples of how resulting distorts financial decision-making. 

• People judge Bitcoin based on past price movements, not its fundamentals. 
• If Bitcoin crashed when they first heard about it, they assume it’s always risky. 
• If Bitcoin only goes up, they assume they’re too late. 

Common Bitcoin Resulting Mistakes: 

• "I bought Bitcoin in 2017 at $20K, then it crashed. It was a bad investment." 
• “Bitcoin dropped 50% last cycle. That means it’s too risky." 
• “If Bitcoin goes up after I buy, I was right. If it goes down, I was wrong." 

Bitcoiners who understand resulting know that short-term price doesn’t determine the correctness of the decision—the thesis does. 

How to Recognize & Overcome Resulting 

Overcoming resulting requires shifting how you evaluate your decisions: 

Judge decisions by process, not outcome. 

• Ask: "Would I make this choice again, knowing what I knew at the time?" 

Separate luck from skill. 

• Bad outcomes don’t mean bad choices. Good outcomes don’t mean good choices. 

Use long-term thinking. 

• Bitcoin’s value isn’t determined by today’s price—it’s based on its monetary properties. 

Don’t let past mistakes keep you from making good future decisions. 

• Just because you bought high once doesn’t mean Bitcoin is bad—it means you didn’t understand cycles. 

Final Thought: Why Process Matters More Than Results 

If you only judge your decisions by results, you’ll never learn from them. Bitcoin isn’t about gambling on short-term price movements—it’s about understanding long-term value. 

The real mistake isn’t buying Bitcoin at the wrong time. It’s refusing to learn why you should have bought it in the first place. 

Wealth melts. How much you got left? 

Disclaimer: Melting Wealth is not financial advice. It’s a wake-up call. Think for yourself, question the system, and take responsibility for your decisions. Your money, your risk, your move.